Euro is weakening...Perhaps more Brits will invade Spain now?

Hi Guys,

I am new to the site, kindly recommended to me by Ian at Daydream Villas. I am a currency trader and I deal with alot of British clients moving to Spain. Their move involves a currency transfer of sterling to euro's and with the way that rate has behaved over the last few years this has been quite poor value for alot of people moving into Europe.

Now with the imminenet implosion/split up of the Eurozone, when I say imminent of course this will take years to phase out, we are going to see a much more sensible value on GBP-EURO. Currently trading at 1.20 and looking like climbing even higher again. This in theory should see alot more Brits moving to Spain as they now see properties that they looked at 6 months ago are now all of a sudden 7% cheaper through an improved exchange rate.

I know there is so much more to teh debate but what would you guys prefer...Euro or the old pesata?

[email protected]
www.internationalfx.com
UK 02030058918


I don't think it's about the euro or peseta. It's about the people who have moved here, infested the towns, villages an so on. So what happens is prices rise the demand for supply rises so when people who own shops am so on see this happening the first thought must be ummm I can add a few extra cents here and there. Just ask yourself what were prices like in la marina 10 - -5 years ago. CHEAP. so my opinion is in some way us ex-pats increased the population in local towns and villages so prices rise. It will repeat itself like everything in life. So we should all leave la marina come back in a few years when it's even deader an prices will be cheap as hell.

Commented Andi in La Marina 2012-01-26 17:05:32 UTC

I take your point that demand drives prices, but my main point was rate related. Sometimes you can find that extra value and get a bargain when you catch the exchange rate nicely. Example, my client that bought a €350k house in Malaga just over a year ago could buy the house at the same euro price today but it would cost him £27k less! So, according to my agents I am speaking to and also the buyers, these euro problems present a nice opportunity to get a sweeter deal on property in europe. I know in time the housing market will rise in turn to compensate, but during this uncertain time for the eurozone brits can actually take advantage.

Commented Paul Davey in La Marina 2012-01-27 09:44:39 UTC

Yup that's very true. I know nothing about markets I do keep a eye on the FTSE an if I have one question it would be.... Every time the FTSE is down the pound to the euro rises every time the FTSE is up the euro drops. Isn't ment to be other way around.

Commented Andi in La Marina 2012-01-27 09:51:40 UTC

Interesting correlation that one, it is a similar concept to the one where Bad news data strengthens the dollar! Nowadays the fx market is driven 95% by speculators. Students playing with their student loans on spread betting etc. So this means sometimes when it should fundamentally go one way, it goes the other as people are placing or taking off bets and positions. Unfortuately, fx markets dont make much sense anymore and they are so unpredictable that all we can do as traders is make educated guesses.

Commented Paul Davey in La Marina 2012-01-27 09:59:15 UTC

You see what gets me is we all know we're in a recession as everything is worse of now than it was 3-4 years ago so why can't they admit this is a start of maybe a little depression. The fact is they need a two tier Europe. Spain is not as. Competitive as other European states we have fruit and veg here as a big export and little manufacturing. Same as Greece. If I had the choice I would have the peseta back now.

Commented Andi in La Marina 2012-01-27 10:24:54 UTC

A two tier europe and euro is the ONLY way forward in my view. A single currency across such a range of economies was a farce in the first place.

Commented Paul Davey in La Marina 2012-01-27 10:50:50 UTC

I would say that Spain is littered with Holiday homes people wanting to get rid of
to make sure they can keep there purse balanced back in England.
Got to say we've taken advantage and bought a Josafina valued at 55,000€ for 36,000€

A Two tier system would not make matters any better for Spain has the Euro simply has no true value hence how nearly every country in the Euro has nearly gone under or about to.

I can see it now the Spanish Euro marked differently so when you went to Germany it would be worth a lot less? Spain would be better off out and going back to its own currency where it would have true value and yes people would return for holidaying in Spain. Lets be realistic
before 1999 the English pound was nearly double the Peseta and now later with the Euro
our pound is worth just around 0.17pence more
Just what had changed!

Thats why the English are staying away from Spain and going outside the EU for there holidays. Simple maths really.

Commented FOX160 in La Marina 2012-01-27 19:38:18 UTC


It seems that most people are writing about the weakness of the Euro against the Pound,in truth the Pound is itself weak,which can be seen quite clearly in the fact that everything said about the Euro makes bad reading,yet it is two cents stronger against the Pound than it was a week or so ago.
Surely what people should be looking at is where to put any spare cash,away from these two currencies,which may provide a safe haven for our hard earned cash.Be it in the currencies of stronger nations or commodities.
The Ex-Pats are going to lose whatever happens as the chances are that those that own properties and have Spanish bank accounts could lose around 30% of their worth,with any de valuation of the Spanish coinage which would follow the loss of the Euro.Add to this that it would be (or is) almost impossible to sell your property for anywhere near its worth,even at this present time.
I feel lucky that at this particular time i enjoy living where i am,so having no intention of moving,the price of my house doesnt bother me at the moment,The only precaution I am taking as yet is to transfer less money over to Euros,normally approx. every six months now I do it very couple of months,thereby having less Euros than normal in my Spanish bank account.
i would love to have enough spare cash to buy blocks of gold,or platignum or diamonds or even commodities like copper,unfortunately I dont have the sort of cash you need to make an impact.
So does anyone have any ideas

Commented Alan in La Marina 2012-01-28 13:10:58 UTC

Alan my advise to you and what I am doing is not putting any more money into my Spanish account other than what is needed to pay my mortgage and bills.
Also make sure your with one if not the largest Bank in Spain incase all goes belly up over there

Keep your money in an English bank that is owned by the tax payer.
If you can put any extra cash into a high interest account.
It may be a low return but at least your monies secure from loss

Commented FOX160 in La Marina 2012-01-28 13:21:50 UTC

The comments above are completely spot on, eventually these things level out otherwise if it was a foolproof way to print money we would all be doing it. The classic saying that the best investment is in bricks and mortar usually rings true and My main point was that in uncertain times you may be able to find a bargain. The pound is in a real mess I agree, however we are taking our fiscal deficit much more seriously than most modern states and Osborne is actually not doing a bad job of reining in public spending so we SHOULD be able to recover well over the next few years, certainly to a much more sustainable economy than that of the eurozone at least...

Commented Paul Davey in La Marina 2012-01-30 10:54:57 UTC

Big news for the Euro today...They have agreed to a brand new €500bn bailout fund and also a new fiscal union that encompasses 25 out of 27 EU member nations. Guess who didnt vote for this new bailout...UK and Czech Republic. Good old Mr Cameron has stood his ground here quite well in my opinion.

Also the Greeks have managed to bend the private investors over the ouzo barrel...forcing them into taking further losses on their debt holdings - this is critical to Greece staying in the euro...for now.

Commented Paul Davey in La Marina 2012-01-31 10:21:25 UTC

So with all thisdoom and gloom about the euro Should one change the euros under the bed into sterling??

Commented Hope in La Marina 2012-01-31 12:42:54 UTC

The thing is no matter what they do the euro is doomed for certain countries. The FTSE opened high today because of the meeting yesterday and other small factors but it's started slipping again. There no confidence in any investors and if there not investing then nothing's moving. It's a joke.

Commented Andi in La Marina 2012-01-31 12:47:13 UTC

The money put into the Euro pot is what has been bandied about for weeks,and always was dismissed as not being anywhere near enough,to even put a small dent in what was needed to get the Euro on an even keel.Even more worrying was the loans that greece had taken will now only be partially repayed,so i guess when they want to loan more,it will be from different loanees,who they wont now find,so the loans will go the way of Euro Countries paying it and never being repayed,as greece seems to have an attitude similar to our Local Mayor,in that the shortfall was there with the previous government so it is not our problem (sorry to digress,but it was too tempting )So to those who thought about buying Euros,I have got to say only buy what you need,to pay the bills,and to keep enough handy in case the Euro goes tits up at sometime,and it will be awkward to get into a bank for a few days to get cash out

Commented Alan in La Marina 2012-01-31 14:34:44 UTC

It is all very well picking up cheap properties, but then along comes a letter stating you did not pay enough tax because they do not accept that you had the property that cheap, and Bingo you have a bill for the shortfall. Two of my friends have fallen foul of this, so consequently the property does not work out as cheap as you thought. So all you bargain hunters beware and prepare yourself for a shock. The government has 4 years in which to claim and you have weeks to find the money.

Commented Caroline in La Marina 2012-01-31 16:12:13 UTC

Eve,You are so right in your comment.
People are being stitched up by buying properties cheap,and finding out that the tax due is not on what you pay for the property,but the tax due is a per centage of what the relevant government says,what the price of the property was worth in their mind ,it should of been in the good years and not what it is worth and sold for in the bad years

Commented Alan in La Marina 2012-01-31 18:22:07 UTC

2 points I feel important to point out. IF or when the Euro falls apart/splits up etc this would take YEARS to phase out and you r money would still be safe no matter what they decide, it may devalue a bit after an announcement but it would be safe. All of the rate value would e priced in during the weeks running up to a split up,

The other thing I wanted to say is that some kind of split or some countries exiting is almost certain. Greeces so called "rescue" plan is to borrow more money to pay their old debt, and this further borrowing is all to attempt to reach a target of 120% debt to GDP by 2020. So they are throwing good money at bad money.

The monopoly equivalent of landing on Mayfair with a hotel when you have no money and only old kent road with one house on...Then you cut a deal to pay off that Mayfair bill once you have passed go 300 times, all the while hoping no more big bills come your way...

Commented Paul Davey in La Marina 2012-02-01 10:36:58 UTC

Paul I agree with you as to what should happen next,if the Euro either collapses or Countries pull out.But everytime i have seen a bank or Country in financial trouble,the next thing i see are hundreds of people queueing outside banks trying to get all their money out,which causes a run on that bank and it actually runnning out of ready cash,even though almost everybody realises that a vast amount of savings in a bank are guaranteed and customers will not lose their money,but may have to wait a while to be able to access it.That is the reason why i suggested that some cash be on hand before that day arrives,in that way you will not have to queue at banks for hours to get money out that you need immediately to buy supplies to last you for the few days following any such announcement of a collapse of the euro; or countries pulling out of the euro.
We are in the end talking about peoples life savings,and the fact is they will panic,and try to get their cash out,at the end of the day people dont trust banks or even governments to keep promises

Commented Alan in La Marina 2012-02-01 15:06:36 UTC

A very interesting article that illustrates the demise of the euro on a timeline...Ends in January (perhaps as the currency itself should have)...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13856580

Commented Paul Davey in La Marina 2012-02-07 10:35:11 UTC

Just seen the BBC news and the Greeks are burning the German flag again

Commented FOX160 in La Marina 2012-02-07 19:25:40 UTC